Trade Analysis and Tips for the Japanese Yen

The price test at 146.32 occurred at a time when the MACD had moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential within the context of a bearish market. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Recently, statements from Federal Reserve officials have supported the dollar, as nearly all policymakers believe it is necessary to maintain a pause in the cycle of interest rate cuts. This creates a sense of stability and predictability, attracting investors looking for safe assets amid global economic uncertainty. However, considering Donald Trump's current trade policy, this confidence is significantly diminished. Nevertheless, the dollar continues to hold a leading position. Still, as long as the turmoil over tariffs persists, many traders will turn their attention to the Japanese yen, which is currently exhibiting high volatility due to this situation.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely mainly on the implementation of Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the entry point around 146.93 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 148.48 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 148.48, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from the level). One can expect growth in the pair as part of an upward correction. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 145.94 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 146.93 and 148.48 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout of the 145.94 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The main target for sellers will be the 144.44 level, where I plan to exit short positions and open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from the level). Downward pressure on the pair is possible at any moment today. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 146.93 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 145.94 and 144.44 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought
• Thick green line – estimated level for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold
• Thick red line – estimated level for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can lose your entire deposit very quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one I've presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.