Thursday Trade Review:

1-Hour EUR/USD Chart

On Thursday, EUR/USD continued its upward movement, which was clearly visible on the hourly timeframe. On the 5-minute chart, however, the pair was completely flat. It was a tranquil day in terms of macroeconomic and fundamental events. More accurately, the pair has entered a stagnation phase that requires major catalysts to spur renewed volatility. Due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, many key October reports were never released. As a result, traders still don't fully understand how the Federal Reserve will approach its rate decision at the end of the month. The market is pricing in a near-100% probability of another rate cut, yet skepticism remains—a paradox in itself. Additionally, U.S.–China trade tensions are escalating again. Therefore, there are already more than enough reasons to pressure the dollar. From a technical perspective, the pair broke through a descending trendline, so further upward movement is to be expected.

5-Minute EUR/USD Chart

On the 5-minute timeframe, only in the evening was the first valid buy signal formed. The rest of the day, the price moved sideways within the 1.1655–1.1666 range. Since it eventually broke away from this zone, beginner traders had every reason to open long positions with a target around the 1.1745 area. At this point, stop-loss orders can be set at breakeven, and traders can continue holding for potential gains.

How to Trade on Friday:

On the hourly chart, EUR/USD finally shows signs of a confirmed upward reversal. The descending trendline has been broken once again, and the overall fundamental and macroeconomic background for the U.S. dollar remains overwhelmingly negative. Therefore, a continuation of the 2025 uptrend seems likely.

Friday may again be a low-volatility session, as there are no major events scheduled in either the Eurozone or the U.S. A buy signal was formed on Thursday in the 1.1655–1.1666 range, so long positions remain valid with the target near the 1.1745–1.1754 zone.

On the 5-minute TF, consider the levels 1.1354-1.1363, 1.1413, 1.1455-1.1474, 1.1527, 1.1571-1.1584, 1.1655-1.1666, 1.1745-1.1754, 1.1808, 1.1851, 1.1908, 1.1970-1.1988. With no impactful news today, volatility may again remain low. However, the euro can continue inching higher, as all necessary conditions are present for further growth.

Basic Trading System Rules:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly it forms (rejection or breakthrough). The quicker the reaction, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more false trades occur from the same level, any new signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In flat conditions, many false signals may appear—or none at all. At the first signs of a flat market, consider pausing trading.
4. Trade between the start of the European session and the midpoint of the U.S. session. All trades should be closed manually before the end of the session.
5. On the hourly chart, use MACD signals only when the price is moving within an active trend, supported by a trendline or channel.
6. If two levels are spaced closely together (5–20 pips), treat them as a support/resistance zone.
7. After a 15-pip move in the right direction, move the Stop Loss to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels: Targets for long and short trades. Consider these points for setting Take Profit levels.
• Red lines: Trendlines and trend channels used to identify current direction and preferred trading bias.
• MACD (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line used as an auxiliary indicator for generating trade signals.
• Important speeches and key reports (always listed on the economic calendar) can strongly influence price direction. During these events, trading should be done with extreme caution or avoided altogether to reduce the risk of sharp price reversals.
• Beginner traders should remember: not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and using sound money management principles are the foundations of long-term success in forex trading.