In the coming months, American markets will be enveloped in pre-election uncertainty, yet the outcomes of the midterm elections are unlikely to shake Wall Street. Analysts at Goldman Sachs note that investors should brace for the classic autumn surge in volatility, followed by a steady increase once political results are finalized.

Historically, from early August until election day, US stocks tend to enter a lull. Since 1974, the median return for the S&P 500 during this period has been exactly 0%. Amid the political noise, foreign investors and mutual funds typically reduce their positions. However, after the elections, uncertainty dissipates, and the index tends to gain an average of 6% over the following three months. Currently, the focus is shifting from corporate earnings to macroeconomics and geopolitics, making bets on index volatility particularly attractive.

Interestingly, the real threat to the market comes not from policymakers but from the bond market. Goldman Sachs warns that a sharp spike in the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds by approximately 50 basis points in a month could exert serious pressure on stocks.

Analysts do not anticipate any legislative surprises from the elections. The probability of the House of Representatives flipping to the Democrats is estimated at 85%, while the chances in the Senate are viewed as completely equal. A divided Congress will limit the potential for drastic political maneuvers, leading investors to calculate the implications of the midterms with an eye toward the 2028 presidential race.

The primary trigger for the average voter remains inflation, which is leading in social polls. Meanwhile, investors are closely monitoring the potential regulation of artificial intelligence, a rare topic that has garnered bipartisan agreement. So far, electoral ratings have had minimal impact on stock prices. Only the consumer sector shows a slight dependence on political expectations, while the broader market seems to prefer operating by its own rules.