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Goldman Sachs: no global shortage yet, but India and Thailand move to ration fuel as Asian imports slip

Concerns about a wholesale depletion of global oil stocks have resurfaced amid the prolonged conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, a new analysis by Goldman Sachs finds that, despite acute strain on supply chains, the current situation does not yet amount to a full structural shortage.

The bank estimates that the immediate impact of logistical disruptions has been felt most sharply in Asia, which is heavily dependent on refined product imports from the Persian Gulf. Many Asian economies source roughly half of their fuel from that region, while reliance on countries such as South Korea and Singapore approaches 75%.

Despite the vulnerability, a broad shortage has so far been avoided because importers have been able to switch quickly to alternative suppliers, draw on existing reserves, and impose export restrictions to stabilize domestic markets. Goldman warns, however, that this buffer is temporary. By the end of March, net oil inflows into Asia had declined sharply, signaling growing strain in the system as Gulf shipments slow.

The report highlights uneven pressure across fuel types. Petrochemical feedstocks such as naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have already experienced acute shortages because of historically low inventories and technical storage constraints. At the same time, global prices for diesel and jet kerosene have surged, reflecting both physical supply limits and precautionary stockpiling by market participants.

Goldman also identifies early signs of local rationing. Several countries, including India and Thailand, have reported supply disruptions and have been forced to introduce fuel rationing. Other governments in the region have begun administrative measures to manage consumption.

Nonetheless, the bank refrains from classifying the situation as a structural supply crisis. Large economies such as China and Japan hold substantial strategic reserves that allow them to absorb the current shock. More broadly, analysts say the market retains flexibility through redirected trade flows and the drawdown of commercial stocks.

The core conclusion of the report is that global stocks are not yet exhausted. If, however, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz persists, localized shortages and sharper price spikes will inevitably intensify, especially in regions most dependent on imported fuels.

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