Analysis of Trading the Euro Currency

The price test at 1.1440 coincided with the MACD indicator moving significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. The second test at 1.1440 triggered scenario #2 to sell the euro, resulting in a 15-pip decline in the pair.

The return of risk appetite has become the main driver for the euro during Asian trading today. The easing of tensions in the Middle East convinced market participants that the acute phase had passed, prompting a shift from the safe dollar to more lucrative assets. John Williams's speech from the Fed yesterday also did not support the dollar, despite his expressed concern about rising inflation amid investments in artificial intelligence. The market chose to focus on the overall improvement in sentiment and disappointing data.

Today, the euro approaches the end of the week ahead of a dense block of European data that will determine its trajectory. The morning will begin with publications on consumer inflation in Germany and France, and closer to midday, attention will shift to Italy's industrial production and the meeting of the EU finance ministers. Inflation reports are key here, as they will determine how hawkish a line the European Central Bank can maintain, while industrial data will complete the picture of the real sector in the Eurozone. Much will depend on whether the figures can justify the market's optimism. Only this will serve as fuel for the euro's growth in the first half of the day.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, the euro can be bought when the price reaches around 1.1454 (green line on the chart), targeting a move toward 1.1485. At 1.1485, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro immediately on a retracement, expecting a move of 30-35 pips from the entry point. The euro's growth can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the case of two consecutive tests of the price 1.1436 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposing levels of 1.1454 and 1.1485 is expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1436 (the red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1397, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a move of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today if data is poor. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1454, with the MACD indicator in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposing levels of 1.1436 and 1.1397 is expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• The thin green line represents the entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• The thick green line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further upward movement is unlikely above this level;
• The thin red line is the entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• The thick red line is the estimated price at which to set Take Profit or lock in profits, as further downward movement is unlikely below this level;
• The MACD indicator. It is important to base market entries on overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginning traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan, similar to the one I have presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for intraday traders.