USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair has surprised us with its relentless growth. The rise occurred on large volumes (the highest in April), but far from record volumes of the year. Most likely, the price surged as stop-loss orders for short positions were closed above 155.55. The price has reached the upper boundary of the global price channel at 160.45. And the pair will likely stay above this level.

However, we do not see any particular ideas that are currently being embraced by either buyers or sellers. As a result, we have a range of uncertainty spanning 470 pips – from 155.75 to 160.45. If the price consolidates above 160.45, it could extend the rise to 163.85, but from a practical perspective, expecting such growth increases the risk even more – the price could fall at any moment.

On the 4-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is in overbought territory. Several reversal patterns could technically form during a sharp rise. Preparation is also needed to continue the trend, as the price is facing strong resistance at the upper boundary of the price channel. This could involve forming a consolidation pattern like a flag or a small triangle. Either scenario requires time, so we are taking a neutral position.