Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the European Currency

The test of the price at 1.0726 in the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had risen significantly above the zero mark, limiting the further upward potential of the pair. For this reason, I did not sell. After a short period, several tests of 1.0726 under the same conditions led to the implementation of scenario #2 for selling. However, a significant drop in the pair did not occur. Ahead of us are a number of important reports that could turn the market around. We are expecting figures on the number of initial jobless claims in the US, changes in GDP for the first quarter, and the balance of trade in goods. Strong reports, especially those related to GDP, will lead to the strengthening of the pair, so I will act despite the MACD indicator, relying more on the implementation of scenario #1. If the data disappoints and turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, it's a reason to buy the euro further in the uptrend.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.0733 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.0789. At 1.0789, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 points from the entry point. Euro growth today can only be expected after very weak US GDP statistics. Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to buy the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0704, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market upward. We can expect growth towards the opposite levels of 1.0733 and 1.0789.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I will sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.0704 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0645, where I plan to exit the market and buy the euro immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in the absence of buyer activity near the daily maximum and strong US GDP statistics. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just starting to decrease from it.

Scenario #2: Today, I also plan to sell the euro in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.0733, at a moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reversal of the market downward. We can expect a decline towards the opposite levels of 1.0704 and 1.0645.

What's on the chart:

Thin green line - entry price, at which you can buy the trading instrument;

Thick green line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;

Thin red line - entry price, at which you can sell the trading instrument;

Thick red line - the expected price, where you can set Take Profit or independently take profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;

MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very careful when making decisions to enter the market. It's best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You need to set stop orders to lose your entire deposit quickly, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.