On the hourly chart, GBP/USD made another rebound from the 1.3526 level on Friday and returned to the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3489. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and some upward movement toward the 1.3526 and 1.3556 levels. A close below 1.3489 would allow traders to expect a continuation of the decline toward the 1.3447–1.3454 support level.

The market situation remains "bullish." The latest completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, while the new downward wave has not yet broken the previous low. Thus, the bulls currently have the initiative in the market, and their advantage remains intact. The "bullish" trend can be considered broken only after the low of the latest completed wave is broken. In other words, below the 1.3473 level.

Traders' attention has now shifted entirely to the Bank of England and Fed meetings this week. However, I would like to note that traders currently expect the FOMC to tighten monetary policy, while at the same time there are significant doubts about this. For example, last Thursday, no one had any doubts about the ECB tightening its policy. At present, no one doubts that the Bank of England's stance on Thursday will be more hawkish than before. However, there are significant doubts regarding the Fed. The main reason for the Fed potentially refraining from raising interest rates remains the Warsh-Trump tandem. In recent months, the market has come to believe that Warsh and his colleagues will make decisions based on economic data and nothing else. However, there is a possibility that the FOMC will decide to extend the pause due to the lack of an increase in inflation in August and Trump's reluctance to see a higher interest rate. Fed policymakers clearly understand that inflation-related risks remain tilted to the upside, but at the same time, some of them do not consider the conflict in the Middle East sufficient grounds for another increase in prices. Therefore, I cannot say that the Fed will decide to tighten policy on Wednesday with 100% certainty.

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD reversed in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below the 23.6% retracement level at 1.3538. However, whether the bears will continue their attacks will depend on the news background this week. A rebound from the 1.3467–1.3482 support level would allow for a return to the 1.3538 level. Consolidation below the 1.3467–1.3482 level would increase the probability of a continued decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3409. No emerging divergences are currently observed in any of the indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bearish" over the latest reporting week. The number of Long positions held by speculators decreased by 11,866, while the number of Short positions decreased by 2,605. The current gap between the numbers of Long and Short positions is essentially 74,000 versus 132,000. The gap and the bears' advantage are gradually narrowing, but the bears' advantage nevertheless remains substantial. Previously, the bears' dominance was unquestioned, but now it is being called into question because the news background has changed.

I still do not believe in a "bearish" trend for the pound, but in the near term, everything will depend on Trump's trade policy, the monetary policies of the Fed and the Bank of England, as well as the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East. In recent months, the market has adjusted its expectations toward peace, but negotiations between Iran and the United States failed without really getting started. And there is no guarantee that they will resume in the near future. The Fed's monetary policy stance remains contradictory.

News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:

The economic events calendar for September 14 contains no entries. The economic background will have no impact on market sentiment on Monday.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Selling the pair was possible following a rebound from the 1.3526 level on the hourly chart, with targets at 1.3489 and 1.3454. The first target has been reached. Buying is possible following a rebound from the 1.3489 level, with targets at 1.3526 and 1.3556.

The Fibonacci grids are drawn from 1.3557–1.3272 on the hourly chart and from 1.3158–1.3655 on the 4-hour chart.