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10.08.2026 05:46 AM
The GBP/USD pair also showed upward movement on Friday, but it was too weak given the macroeconomic backdrop that day and the fundamental consequences that backdrop would provoke. The NonFarm Payrolls report not only failed; it virtually made the tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy in September impossible, which the market had been betting on for the past two months. Thus, the dollar is losing a significant support factor, one of very few. Recall that geopolitics no longer supports the dollar. The conflict in the Middle East has long been in a stalemate, and that is actually the best state of affairs. Tehran and Washington cannot reach common ground; negotiations are not underway, but restarting a war makes no sense. The Strait of Hormuz may be opened soon, or it may remain closed for many years. The main point — we see no grounds for a resumption of full-scale war, whatever Donald Trump says. That means the dollar will have no reason to rise on the basis of risk-related capital flight.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Friday, two trading signals were formed that traders could have traded. First, the price bounced off the 1.3456–1.3476 area, and then it broke through it. The first sell signal proved rather weak, and after the NonFarm Payrolls publication, the price literally shot up. The second buy signal could have been traded, but the trade had to be carried over to the new week.
On the hourly TF, the GBP/USD pair maintains its uptrend. In our view, the pound will continue to rise even if local factors do not support it. On the weekly TF, the movement from the lower boundary of the sideways channel to the upper boundary continues. That movement is not finished. Belief in a Fed rate hike in September is evaporating before our eyes; the market no longer pays much attention to geopolitics, and technicals support the pound's rise.
On Monday, novice traders may open short positions if there is a more convincing consolidation below the 1.3456–1.3476 area, targeting 1.3380–1.3386. Long positions can be kept open with a target of 1.3587–1.3598.
On the 5-minute TF you can now trade using the levels 1.3175–1.3180, 1.3259–1.3267, 1.3319–1.3331, 1.3380–1.3386, 1.3456–1.3476, 1.3587–1.3598, 1.3631–1.3641, 1.3695. On Monday, there are no important events scheduled in the US or the UK, so only very weak moves may be observed during the day.
Support and resistance price levels (areas) are the targets when opening buy or sell orders or sources of signals.
Red lines denote channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate in which direction trading is currently favored.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (as listed in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be approached with utmost caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the preceding movement.
Beginners in Forex trading should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.
