Lihat juga
14.10.2026 05:25 AM
The GBP/USD pair also traded higher on Tuesday, but there are no fundamental questions about the pound right now. The macro and fundamental backdrop was absent during the first two trading days of the week, and the British currency has been in a sideways channel with boundaries 1.3187–1.3301 for 2.5 weeks. Thus, any moves are possible inside this channel regardless of news and releases. The pound fell to the lower channel boundary on Monday, so, unsurprisingly, it is now moving toward the upper boundary. In our view, the US dollar has once again shown undeserved strength in 2026, and the market largely ignores the fact that the Bank of England may begin tightening as early as November. The UK, like the eurozone, faces economic and energy problems, but so does everyone else. The US has no fewer problems. Therefore, we continue to view the dollar's rise as illogical and speculative.
Technically, the pound continues to form a downtrend despite breaching the trendline. Recall that a trendline breakout in flat conditions does not mean a trend reversal. A flat is a market pause and shouldn't count when determining the trend. Below the Senkou Span B line, the downside bias remains.
On the 5-minute timeframe on Tuesday, a buy signal was formed after price cleared the 1.3245–1.3248 area. Today, the pound's upward move may continue toward 1.3301–1.3309, the upper boundary of the flat.
COT reports for the pound show that non-commercial traders have dominated on the sell side for several months. The net position is negative, despite the preservation of the long-term uptrend. Given events in the Middle East, it is unsurprising that demand for the dollar remains fairly high in 2026. The war between the US and Iran has been formally paused, but a new conflict has begun within Yemen. The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy stance also supports the dollar, and the uptrend line has been breached. However, it was breached within a flat, so we do not consider the uptrend finished.
In the long term, the dollar continues to decline due to Donald Trump's policies, which is clearly visible on the weekly timeframe. The trade war will continue in one form or another for a long time, and Trump's policies aim, directly and indirectly, to weaken the US currency. The long-term uptrend remains intact. According to the latest COT report (October 6), the "Non-commercial" group opened 3,800 BUY contracts and 10,400 SELL contracts. As a result, non-commercial traders' net position fell by 6,600 contracts over the week.
On the hourly timeframe, GBP/USD continues to form a downward trend and has been flat for two and a half weeks. The Fed's September decision and stance changed market prospects for the US dollar and sentiment toward it. We would say that twice this year a "black swan" supported the dollar when no one expected it. However, over the long term, GBP/USD remains flat. We do not expect further structural gains in the dollar.
For October 14 we highlight the following important levels: 1.3042–1.3050, 1.3096–1.3115, 1.3179–1.3187, 1.3248, 1.3301–1.3309, 1.3369–1.3377, 1.3465–1.3480, 1.3588, 1.3671–1.3681. Senkou Span B (1.3301) and Kijun-sen (1.3245) may also provide signals. It is recommended to move the stop loss to breakeven once price has moved 20 pips in the correct direction. Ichimoku lines may shift during the day and should be considered when defining signals.
Today, no major events are scheduled in the UK, while the US will release the inflation report, which could provoke a strong market reaction if the print deviates from forecasts. For the pound to continue rising and break out of the sideways channel, a lower-than-expected US CPI would help.
Traders may consider the 1.3179–1.3187 area a target for short positions if price closes below 1.3245–1.3248. A close above 1.3179–1.3187 would allow consideration of 1.3301–1.3309 as targets for long positions.
