After a week of consolidation above 1.1750 and above the 200 EMA around 1.1768, the euro broke strongly out of the downtrend channel formed since January 26 and is now recovering.

EUR/USD is likely to encounter resistance levels around 6/8 Murray.

The euro managed to break the downtrend channel and consolidate above the 21 SMA. According to the Fibonacci retracement, the EUR/USD pair is now around 50% and is likely to continue rising until it reaches 61.8% around 1.1962. This level could be seen as an opportunity to resume short positions.

If the bullish momentum prevails, we could expect the euro to reach the psychological level of 1.2000. EUR/USD could even reach the 7/8 Murray around 1.2085.

However, the euro could struggle to continue rising in the coming days, as markets are investing in low-risk assets, and the euro is likely to struggle to stay above 1.20 in the coming days.

Our strategy for the coming hours is to wait for the euro to reach the 61.8% Fibonacci level to resume short trading, with a target at the 5/8 Murray located at 1.1840. EUR/USD is also expected to reach the 4/8 Murray around 1.1718.

Conversely, a technical correction towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around 1.1840 or around the bottom of the uptrend channel formed since the end of December 2025 could be seen as an opportunity to continue buying at 1.2085.