Lagarde says current energy shock differs from 1970s collapse
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted key differences between the present downturn in Europe and the systemic collapse of the 1970s. She said the principal destabilizing factor today is Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has paralyzed major supply routes for energy commodity shipments in the Middle East.
The contemporary economic environment is characterized by a more stable labor market and the absence of the acute unemployment levels seen in the last century. Lagarde said that the ECB leadership would not abandon the inflation target and intended to keep consumer price growth at around 2%. The regulator plans to maintain tight monetary policy to prevent a prolonged inflationary spiral similar to that triggered by the 1970s OPEC oil embargo.
Disruption to maritime traffic has driven a rapid increase in market prices for crude oil, natural gas, and refined products, including diesel and jet kerosene. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, warned of the risk of operational collapse at major European airports in the summer of 2026. The agency expects resource shortages in the European region to persist even after tankers are able to resume free passage through the Strait of Hormuz.