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12.10.2026 08:21 AMA price test at 1.1215 occurred after the MACD indicator had already moved far below the zero line, limiting the pair's downside potential. For that reason, I did not sell the euro.
Today, the EUR/USD pair has already received some relief, since late last week the dollar halted its rise after the University of Michigan data, but those figures failed to put strong pressure on the US currency. The consumer-sentiment index fell to 46.3 in October from 48.1 in September, while it was 53.6 at this time last year.
The report shows an interesting divergence. The current conditions measure dropped to 44.7 from 50.9, while the expectations index rose to 47.3 from 46.3. People assess today's situation worse but look to the future a bit more confidently. Inflation expectations also rose: one-year expectations rose to 4.7% from 4.6%, and long-term expectations to 3.5% from 3.4%. For the euro, the main conclusion is that the market sees the Federal Reserve as tighter than the European Central Bank. The probability of a rate hike on December 9 is roughly 80%, while a pause on October 28 is the baseline scenario. In my view, as long as this picture holds, the euro's upside potential is limited, and a return to the dollar's yearly highs is only a matter of time.
Today the eurozone calendar is empty. No reports or ECB speakers are scheduled for the first half of the day, so the euro has no reason for strong movement this morning. I expect the pair to spend this time calmly in a narrow sideways range and to watch the dollar rather than dictate terms. I believe the market will prefer to hold positions absent news. If the US session brings new signals, EUR/USD may exit the range, but for now there is no reason for that.
For the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on Scenario 1 and Scenario 2.
Scenario 1: Buy the euro today near 1.1208 (green line on the chart), targeting 1.1222. I plan to exit at 1.1222 and also sell EUR at that point, aiming for a 30–35 pip move from the entry. Expect euro gains only within the channel. Important: before buying, make sure MACD is above zero and only beginning to rise from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider buying if price tests 1.1195 twice while MACD is in the oversold area. That would limit downside potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect moves to the opposite levels 1.1208 and 1.1222.
Scenario 1: Plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.1195 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1176, where I plan to exit and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip reversal from that level). Strong pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today. Important: before selling, ensure MACD is below zero and only beginning to decline from it.
Scenario 2: Also consider selling if price tests 1.1208 twice while MACD is in the overbought area. That would limit upside potential and trigger a reversal downward. Expect declines toward the opposite levels of 1.1195 and 1.1176.
Thin green line — entry price where you can buy the instrument.
Thick green line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further upside above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line — entry price where you can sell the instrument.
Thick red line — approximate price where you can place Take Profit or manually lock in profits, because further downside below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator. When entering the market, it's important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important. Novice Forex traders must be very cautious when deciding to enter the market. It is best to stay out before major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the example above. Spontaneous trade decisions based solely on the immediate market situation are, by definition, a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
