The GBP/USD currency pair also traded lower on Tuesday. It might be tempting to attribute this to another complication in the negotiation process between Iran and the US, but the dollar has been steadily rising for two months, with the last two weeks raising the most questions. It is difficult to understand why Tehran and Washington signed a memorandum of understanding if nothing has changed afterward. Last week, both sides began launching missiles in the Persian Gulf again, while Donald Trump oscillates between freezing Iranian assets and not freezing them. The conflict between Lebanon and Israel continues, as Hezbollah rejected the proposed deal, despite not being part of the negotiations. All this resembles a farce, if not for the sad nature of the events.

The key issues in the dispute between Iran and the US are neither resolved nor being actively addressed because Tehran and Washington—attention!—cannot even agree on their next meeting and continue violating ceasefire terms. Much has already been said regarding the nuclear issue, and stripping away all unverified and unconfirmed information leaves us with nothing. At this point, it would be helpful if the issue in the Strait of Hormuz were resolved; otherwise, any unblocking would likely be very short-lived. Sometimes it seems the world should learn to manage without Middle Eastern oil and gas, while Middle Eastern countries need to find alternative logistics routes or build new pipelines or railroads. Iran understands that the Strait of Hormuz is its key to success and a guarantee of security better than nuclear weapons. Moreover, the Strait could become a source of income for the Iranian budget, as Tehran plans to charge a toll for the use of the Strait after completing a 60-day period. Rumor has it this toll will be $2 million. Prior to the war, hundreds of ships passed through the Strait daily. Just think about how much Iran could earn from this.

Regarding the nuclear issue, there are no advances, as negotiations on this matter are not even taking place right now. Donald Trump promised Iran "golden mountains" just to get it to abandon nuclear development and enriched uranium stockpiles, but it seems that Iran understands better than anyone that it cannot take the American president's word at face value, as Trump can exit any deal at any moment. So, what is the point of a deal? Therefore, in our opinion, Iran will not give up on nuclear energy under any conditions. The Strait of Hormuz will become its second main source of income unless Trump makes an offer that cannot be refused. The White House will either have to accept this or continue fighting endlessly because Iran will not surrender. In either case, the defeat of the Republican Party in the elections is assured. The world will now thank Trump not only for the trade war but also for the war with Iran, which has given rise to new inflation and an energy crisis.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD currency pair over the last 5 trading days as of July 1 is 65 pips, classified as "average." On Wednesday, July 1, we expect the pair to move within a range bounded by levels 1.3182 and 1.3312. The upper channel of linear regression is directed downward, indicating a downward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold area twice and formed two bullish divergences, suggesting a possible end to the downward trend.

Nearest Support Levels:

• S1 – 1.3245
• S2 – 1.3184
• S3 – 1.3123

Nearest Resistance Levels:

• R1 – 1.3306
• R2 – 1.3367
• R3 – 1.3428

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair continues to exhibit a downward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy; therefore, we do not expect the US currency to appreciate in the long term. The year 2026 is proving highly positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors and, more recently, the Federal Reserve's willingness to raise the key rate. However, on the weekly timeframe, a flat remains between the levels of 1.3150 and 1.3780 within the framework of a four-year upward trend. Long positions with targets at 1.3306 and 1.3367 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. Conversely, when the price is below the moving average line, bearish trading can be pursued with a target at 1.3123.

Explanations for the Illustrations:

• Regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend.
• The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted.
• Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections.
• Volatility levels (red lines) indicate the probable price channel in which the pair will move over the next day, based on current volatility indicators.
• The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal toward the opposite direction is approaching.